The U.S. has been pulling out of Iraq’s cities to meet the July 1st Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) deadline. This actually is the start of an odd period in our withdrawal, most of what we can do effectively is in the cities but the draw down is still proceeding along slowly.
Marc Lynch has a good write-up of the current conditions in Iraq. Things don’t look that good, but that doesn’t mean that the American departure, as mandated in the SOFA by popular demand, isn’t going to happen:
Iraqi politics are going to continue to face all kinds of problems, as every analyst under the moon has pointed out. The Arab-Kurd issue, the continuing problems with government capacity, budget problems, and a host of unresolved issues remain. I think that the refugee/IDP issue remains the largest unresolved and virtually untouched issue facing Iraq -- those millions of people uprooted from their homes by force or fear who have few prospects of returning to their original homes, are largely disenfranchised in the emerging Iraqi political system, and who are almost completely unserved by Iraqi state institutions. But slowing down the American drawdown would not materially improve any of these issues. The best thing the U.S. can do is to continue to demonstrate its clear, credible commitment to withdraw on the agreed-upon timeline, and do what it can to help Iraqis adjust to the new realities.
I quite agree. I wonder if July 1st will end up as a national holiday in Iraq. I suspect it might if only in an attempt to boost the legitimacy of the Maliki government in the interim before we’re out completely.
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